Some politicians say Russia poses the gravest threat to European security since World War II.
But Russia has been weakened by the Ukraine war and is in no position to attack NATO, experts say.
Instead, they say Putin wants to weaken and undermine NATO from within.
The era of relative peace and prosperity the West has enjoyed since the end of World War II may be coming to an end.
In March, Donald Tusk, Poland's prime minister, said Europe was in a "prewar" era and that if Russia defeated Ukraine, it could spell trouble for the security of the continent.
"I don't want to scare anyone, but war is no longer a concept from the past," Tusk said in an interview with several European media outlets. "It is real. In fact, it already started more than two years ago," referring to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
It's one of a series of increasingly stark warnings that the war in Ukraine could be a prelude to a much bigger conflict.
German military-planning documents that leaked in January laid out a scenario where Russia launched a massive 2024 offensive to take advantage of waning Western support in Ukraine.
The documents, obtained by Bild, said Russia could then turn its sights on NATO members in Eastern Europe as it seeks to destabilize its enemies through cyberattacks and internal chaos.
Late last year, Poland's national-security agency said Russia could launch attacks on NATO countries within three years.
Article 5 of NATO's charter treaty stipulates that NATO nations must protect each other from attack, which means a Russian attack on one member could spark a war involving several nuclear-armed states.
But whether Putin really intends to attack a NATO country — and what an attack might look like — remains unclear.
In March, Putin said he doesn't intend to attack any NATO members, describing such claims as "complete nonsense."
However, Western military chiefs are not convinced. A month earlier, Putin threatened NATO with the prospect of a nuclear attack over its support for Ukraine.
He alluded to a suggestion by France's president Emmanuel Macron that NATO could send troops to Ukraine to support its fight against Russia.
Geopolitical analysts told Business Insider that Russia has been weakened by the war in Ukraine and is in no position to attack a NATO state.
But Putin is playing a long game, and the outcome of the Ukraine war and Russia's long-standing bid to corrode NATO will be key factors in determining whether Russia wants to attack.
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