Russia's Medvedev: We'd have to use a nuclear weapon if Ukrainian offensive was a success
MOSCOW, July 30 (Reuters) - Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, who has sometimes raised the spectre of a nuclear conflict over Ukraine, said on Sunday that Moscow would have to use a nuclear weapon if Kyiv's ongoing counter-offensive was a success.
Medvedev, who is deputy chairman of Russia's Security Council, a body chaired by President Vladimir Putin, said in a message on his official social media accounts that Russia would be forced to fall back on its own nuclear doctrine in such a scenario.
"Imagine if the.. offensive, which is backed by NATO, was a success and they tore off a part of our land then we would be forced to use a nuclear weapon according to the rules of a decree from the president of Russia.
International Criminal Court arrest warrants for Vladimir Putin and Maria Lvova-Belova
On 17 March 2023, following an investigation of war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued arrest warrants for Vladimir Putin, the President of Russia, and Maria Lvova-Belova, Russian Commissioner for Children's Rights, alleging responsibility for the war crime of unlawful deportation and transfer of children during the Russian invasion of Ukraine.[1] The warrant against Putin is the first against the leader of a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council.[2]
The 123 member states of the ICC are obliged to detain and transfer Putin and Lvova-Belova if either sets foot on their territory.[3]
Background
International Criminal Court
The International Criminal Court (ICC) is an international court located in The Hague, Netherlands, created in 1998 by the Rome Statute.
Both Russia and Ukraine signed the Statute, but neither ratified it and Russia withdrew its signature from the Statute in 2016 following a report that classified Russia's annexation of Crimea as an occupation; however, Ukraine accepted the Court's jurisdiction on its territory in 2014, allowing the Court to investigate alleged crimes committed during the course of the Russo-Ukrainian war.[4]
The court received total cooperation from the Ukrainian authorities.[5]
Russo-Ukrainian War (2014–present)
On 4 February 2015, the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine appealed to the ICC to investigate crimes against humanity committed by Russian forces on Ukrainian territory since February 20, 2014, and to hold accountable the responsible senior officials of the Russian Federation.[6]
On 24 February 2022, Russia invaded and occupied parts of Ukraine in a major escalation of the Russo-Ukrainian War, which began in 2014. During the invasion, Russia has abducted thousands of Ukrainian children in the Russian-occupied territories of Ukraine and has deported them to Russia.[7]
Ukrainian officials are investigating more than 16,000 suspected cases of forced deportation of minors.[8] Russia has acknowledged transferring 2,000 children without guardians.[5]
In May 2022, Putin ordered to simplify the issuance of Russian citizenship to Ukrainian orphan children.[9] The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine emphasized that by doing this, "Putin effectively legalized the abduction of children".[9]
In September 2022, Lvova-Belova, holding the office of the Commissioner for Children's Rights of Russia, described how the abducted Ukrainian children were initially hostile towards Russia and Putin, but after the process of "integration" the children's negative attitude gradually "turned into love".[10]
Other claims against Putin
In May 2016 families of victims of the MH17 crash filed a claim against Russia and president Vladimir Putin in the European Court of Human Rights.[11][12] MH17 was a scheduled passenger flight that was shot down by Russia-controlled forces in Ukraine,[13] resulting in 298 civilian deaths.[14]
In July 2021, Putin published a lengthy essay "On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians", claiming that Ukraine is an artificial entity that occupies historically Russian lands.[15] A report by 35 legal and genocide experts cited Putin's essay as part of "laying the groundwork for incitement to genocide".[16] Later, the Russian state-owned RIA News published the article titled "What Russia should do with Ukraine", accusing the entire Ukrainian nation of being Nazis who must wiped out and in some cases re-educated.[17][18][19]
Crime of aggression
On 19 March 2022, the European Parliament adopted a resolution on creation of a special international tribunal for the crime of aggression by Russia and Belarus.[20][21]
International law
From the point of view of international law, the forcible deportation of minors is considered a crime against humanity:[22][23]
- According to the "1949 Geneva Convention on the Protection of Civilian Persons in Time of War," occupants have no right to change the civil status of children;[9]
- Russia also violated Article 7 of the UN Convention on the Rights of the Child, which guarantees the right of children to a name and the acquisition of citizenship;[24]
- Article II of the 1948 Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide states that "forcibly transferring children from one national, ethnic, racial or religious group to another" is an act of genocide;[25]
- Russia ratified the Convention for the Protection of Human Rights and Fundamental Freedoms, according to which "no one shall be expelled, either individually or collectively, from the territory of the State of which he is a citizen".[26]
The United Nations commission of inquiry characterized the deportation of Ukrainian children by Russian forces as a war crime.[27]
Several countries officially recognized the ongoing events in Ukraine as a genocide perpetrated by Russian forces. The list of countries includes Ukraine,[28] Poland,[29] Estonia,[30] Latvia,[31] Canada,[32] Lithuania,[33] Czech Republic,[34] Ireland.[35]
Charges
According to the Prosecutor of the ICC, Karim A. A. Khan KC, the charges against Vladimir Putin and Maria Lvova-Belova are based on reasonable grounds that the two are responsible for "unlawful deportation and transfer of Ukrainian children from occupied areas of Ukraine to the Russian Federation, contrary to article 8(2)(a)(vii) and article 8(2)(b)(viii) of the Rome Statute".[36]
The ICC identified "at least hundreds of Ukrainian children taken from orphanages and children’s care homes" by Russian forces.[citation needed] According to Karim Khan, the court's chief prosecutor, these deportations, done with the intention to permanently remove the children from their own country, were a violation of the Geneva Convention and amounted to war crimes.[5]
Official reactions
Criticism
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Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov called the arrest warrant "outrageous and unacceptable",[37] and said that Russia does not recognize the jurisdiction of the ICC.[38] Lvova-Belova told Russian state media RIA Novosti: "It's great that the international community has appreciated the work to help the children of our country, that we take them out, that we create good conditions for them, that we surround them with loving, caring people."[38]
Calling the court "a pathetic international organization," Dmitry Medvedev, the Deputy Chairman of Russia's Security Council, warned: "Gentlemen, everyone walks under God and missiles. It is quite possible to imagine the targeted use of a hypersonic Onyx missile by a Russian ship in the North Sea strikes in the Hague court building. Unfortunately, it cannot be shot down... So, judges of the court, watch the skies closely."[39]
Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic has criticized the arrest warrant for Putin, saying the warrant will prolong the war in Ukraine.[40]
Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China spokesperson Wang Wenbin said at a press conference: "ICC needs to take an objective and just position, respect the jurisdictional immunity of a head of state under international law, prudently exercise its mandate in accordance with the law, interpret and apply international law in good faith, and not engage in politicization or use double standards."[41]
South African Foreign Minister Naledi Pandor criticized the ICC for not having what she called an "evenhanded approach" to all leaders responsible for violations of international law.[42] South Africa, which failed in its obligation to arrest visiting Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir in June 2015, has invited Vladimir Putin to the 15th BRICS Summit of leaders of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa in August 2023. As South Africa is a signatory to the Rome Statute, the presence of Vladimir Putin remains uncertain.[43]
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Western Cape premier Alan Winde criticized the ruling African National Congress (ANC) government for inviting Putin to South Africa and said that the province's officers would arrest Putin if he came to the Western Cape.[45] South African minister Khumbudzo Ntshavheni disputed Winde's words, saying that "If President Putin is in the country and he is protected by the presidential protection service, I don't know how Premier Winde, who does not have even policing functions, will get through the presidential protection service."[46]
In May 2023, South Africa announced that they would be giving diplomatic immunity to Vladimir Putin and other Russian officials so that they could attend the 15th BRICS Summit despite the ICC arrest warrant.[47] Former South African President Thabo Mbeki said: "Because of our legal obligations, we have to arrest President Putin, but we can't do that."[48]
In July 2023, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa announced that Putin would not attend the summit "by mutual agreement" and would instead send Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.[49]
Support
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Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba supported the ICC decision, tweeting: "International criminals will be held accountable for stealing children and other international crimes."[38] Andriy Kostin, Ukraine's chief prosecutor, stated: "World leaders will think twice before shaking [Putin's] hand or sitting with Putin at the negotiating table...It’s another clear signal to the world that the Russian regime is criminal".[5]
German Justice Minister Marco Buschmann stated that if Putin finds himself on German territory, he will be arrested[50] and handed over to the ICC; the arrest warrant is valid throughout the EU territory, and will be enforced even if Putin arrives in the EU as a participant in negotiations.[51]
EU's chief diplomat Josep Borrell stated: “The EU sees the decision by the ICC as a beginning of the process of accountability and holding Russian leaders to account for the crimes and atrocities they are ordering, enabling or committing in Ukraine”.[8]
ICC prosecutor Karim Khan stated: "Those that feel that you can commit a crime in the daytime, and sleep well at night, should perhaps look at history", pointing out that no-one thought Slobodan Milosevic would end up in The Hague.[52]
Brazilian Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira said Putin would face the risk of arrest if he entered Brazil.[53]
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The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE), an international organization with 46 member states, "welcomed the International Criminal Court’s decision to issue arrest warrants for Russia’s President Vladimir Putin and Children’s Rights Commissioner Maria Lvova-Belova on war crimes charges, and urged their enforcement".[54] According to the resolution by PACE, the forcible transfer and "russification" of Ukrainian children shows evidence of genocide.[54]
Analysis
The New York Times stated that "the likelihood of a trial while Mr. Putin remains in power [appeared] slim" due to Russia's refusal to surrender their own officials and the court not trying defendants in absentia.[55] Former US ambassador Stephen Rapp said the warrant "makes Putin a pariah. If he travels, he risks arrest. This never goes away."[56] According to Utrecht University professor Iva Vukusic, Putin "is not going to be able to travel pretty much anywhere else beyond the countries that are either clearly allies or at least somewhat aligned (with) Russia".[3]
In the view of Sky News analyst Sean Bell, the arrest warrant could complicate peace negotiations aimed at ending the Russo-Ukrainian War.[57] Al Jazeera journalist Ahmed Twaij argued that like Putin, former U.S. President George W. Bush should be held accountable before the ICC for war crimes due to his role in the Iraq War.[58] British journalist George Monbiot wrote in a Guardian op-ed that the ICC targeting Putin was an example of the organization's bias in favor of prosecuting crimes by non-Westerners, writing that "Africans accused of such crimes do not enjoy the political protections afforded to the western leaders who perpetrate even greater atrocities."[59]
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